eMarketer expects the number of US social gamers to grow to 68.7 million in 2012, from 53 million in 2010. That represents 29.5% growth over two years and, coincidentally, 29% of the Internet population playing social games by 2012.
What’s behind our user projections?

Our audience forecast assumes that the fundamentals of the social gaming industry will remain in place for at least the next two years. These fundamentals are a deep well of simple games that appeal to large audiences; social sharing features on Facebook and on third-party platforms that allow users to connect to Facebook; and non-real-time playing capabilities.
eMarketer’s user estimates are based on data from sources including Trendstream/Lightspeed Research, BlogHer/iVillage, Newzoo BV, Ipsos OTX MediaCT, ThinkEquity, TrustE, NPD Group and Inside Social Games. These companies looked at social gaming across all platforms, including Facebook and MySpace.
Our figures are generally more conservative than those of other research firms. Here’s why. We noticed there has been a recent drop in cumulative monthly active users among the top 15 games on Facebook, according to Inside Social Games, a resource for user data on social gaming, which releases usage data every month on a game-by-game basis.
This index showed month-to-month drops from September to December 2010, as well as a year-over-year decrease from December 2009 to December 2010.
Since most published estimates of the social gaming audience were based on surveys conducted before this trend emerged, we thought it would be prudent to issue a more guarded estimate than other researchers.
True, there was a rebound in monthly active users in January thanks to the recent launch of Zynga’s popular CityVille, but this spike was not enough to prevent a year-over-year decrease for January 2011 as well.
It’s worth explaining that this data is not a comprehensive measure of social gaming usage. For starters, Inside Social Games compiles worldwide monthly active users on a game-specific basis without regard to overlap among games.
Also, the index that showed a downward trend was limited to the top games on Facebook, which accounts for about three-fourths of social gaming traffic, according to eMarketer estimates. The next-largest social gaming venue, MySpace, showed a 6% increase in cumulative monthly active users from January 2010 to January 2011, according to Inside Social Games.
It’s also worth considering that the drops starting in September might have been precipitated by changes in Facebook’s notification policies. The social network started limiting game notifications to users who already played games. Previously, all users were notified of their Facebook friends’ social gaming activities, which helped the viral spread of the games.
With these caveats in mind, eMarketer’s conclusion is that the Inside Social Games data is not a surefire sign of waning interest, but it does put a damper on expectations. Accordingly, we’re forecasting growth–but at a slower rate than what we’ve seen over the past two years.
Look for my upcoming report, “Social Gaming: Marketers Make Their Moves.”