Forecasts Do Matter

I take issue with the title of a recent blog post by Greg Sterling – “Forecasts Don’t Matter, Consumers Do” – but just the title.  I agree with the substance of the post, and I appreciate the way Greg singles out eMarketer and me in particular for our cautious approach to forecasting (fair warning: I did speak to Greg extensively as I was preparing my latest mobile ad spending projections).

Greg is dead-on in underscoring that consumers should remain in focus as marketers look to mobile. Mobile usage patterns will continue to grow more sophisticated, whether ad spending forecasts go up or down. But forecasts do matter to the extent that they help marketers calibrate (and even obtain) budgets to run marketing programs to engage with mobile consumers. They are a gauge, not always a precisely accurate one, but a gauge nonetheless, and all marketers need some context for developing their plans.