What a difference a year makes. eMarketer’s September 2009 mobile advertising report carried the optimistic subtitle “Change Is in the Air.” Well, it’s safe to say that in 2010, change happened, and mobile advertising ramped up at a quicker pace than predicted.

eMarketer now predicts $743.1 million in total mobile ad spending in 2010, a more than 25% increase over last year’s forecast. Our projections are up on the order of 25% to 35% per year through 2014.

In my new report, “Mobile Advertising and Marketing: Past the Tipping Point” (full version available here to Total Access clients only), I explore in detail the key factors behind this increase in spending. They include:

• Major acquisitions of mobile ad networks by Google and Apple
• Rising adoption of super-capable multimedia smartphones
• The launch of the iPad and the rapid revitalization of the tablet market

Cautious optimism about economic recovery can take some credit as well, but it is really the injection of a new dynamic in the mobile space that is prompting marketers to overcome their reluctance to embrace mobile as a channel to connect with consumers.

Much of this new dynamic is attributable to the high-profile (and high-dollar) acquisitions by Google and Apple and the ways both companies have sought to redefine the mobile device and advertising markets. Google’s promotion of Android has made it a powerful alternative to Apple’s popular iOS platform. And Apple, in turn, has countered with the launch of the iPad, a new iPhone and iAd, the company’s own advertising platform exclusive to Apple devices.

As I noted in a previous blog post, iAd has generated its share of controversy. But in a recent address at the iMedia Breakthrough Summit, I shared the results of nearly a dozen interviews I conducted with industry executives over the past two months. Everyone I spoke with, including some of Apple’s competitors, agreed that iAd has been hugely beneficial to mobile advertising.

Google’s acquisition of AdMob is no less significant, because it will help bring scale to mobile advertising. In the report I write:

Part of what has made Google so successful is the degree to which it has helped demystify and simplify the media buying process. If it can achieve a comparable result with mobile and provide an equivalent level of tools, reporting and accountability, the effect will be significant in both the number of advertisers it will be able to attract to mobile and the amount they spend.

The importance of scale should not be underestimated; it is vital for the long-term viability of mobile advertising.

There is more detail in the report, but the bottom line is this: with consumers spending an ever-increasing amount of time in front of their mobile devices, marketers can scarcely afford not to pay closer attention to mobile. To the contrary, brands need mobile more than ever to stay relevant. And with more capable devices, faster carrier networks, ubiquitous wireless broadband and the availability of richer ad units, marketers have more possibilities than ever to deliver immersive experiences.

This shift is already well under way on the desktop. Starting with the rich media ads proliferating today, the next five years will see more interactivity, higher-powered creative and yes, perhaps even more emotion in mobile advertising.

Apple’s iAd platform launched to great fanfare in April, with the promise of revolutionizing mobile advertising. In June, Steve Jobs further excited industry watchers by announcing that Apple had booked over $60 million in iAd commitments for 2H 2010 from brands the likes of Nissan, Sears, JCPenney, GEICO, Target, Best Buy, GE and Unilever, as well as longtime partners Disney and AT&T.

The first iAd campaigns started to trickle out in early July, and in general, the platform has been slow to pick up steam. Wired reported in mid-August that “control issues” (something with which Apple is synonymous) were hampering the iAd rollout. On the other hand, most advertisers have professed themselves to be pleased with their iAds as well as the initial results of their campaigns. In a conversation we had earlier today, Chad Stoller of BBDO referred to this as the “return on innovation” – the benefit of associating your brand with something perceived as leading edge.

How long this effect will last is a matter of open debate. Jami Lawrence of Publicis Modem told the audience at this week’s Digiday Mobile conference that iAd lacks the reach brands are looking for, calling an iAd campaign little more than a PR move. And in a recent Reuters interview, Yahoo! CEO Carol Bartz said with her usual candor that iAd will “fall apart” for Apple.

That long-term prognosis remains to be seen. For now, conversations I’ve been having with industry leaders as preparation for my annual look at mobile ad spending trends indicate widespread agreement that iAd has a) benefited the mobile advertising space as a whole, and b) underscored the effectiveness of mobile as a branding medium.

Just to cite a few examples, Maria Mandel, vice president of marketing and media innovation for AT&T Advanced Ad Solutions (NB: AT&T is an iAd advertiser) and North America Board Chair of the Mobile Marketing Association told me:

What Apple did was that they were able to brand and build a tremendous amount of awareness around in-app rich media advertising. And the success that they had with the upfront is evidence of that. They’ve really helped build out that market where now there are a lot of advertisers that are aware of in-app rich media advertising and are interested in doing it. And I think that’s a good thing for everybody in this space.

This sentiment was echoed by Frank Barbieri, chief product officer for Transpera:

With iAd in the market, it got everybody talking about the power of mobile as a branding mechanism, and that’s a rising tide that we’ve seen float all boats, including our own.

Eric Litman, CEO of Medialets, described what he’s seen as “a significant uptake in both the level of activity and the velocity of transactions happening on the premium ad side,” citing the launch of iAd as a key factor in this development.

The positive impact of iAd even extends to Apple’s closest rivals. Tony Nethercutt, vice president of sales for AdMob, the mobile ad network Google acquired in December 2009, explained:

We’ve benefited in a number of ways. First and foremost, from the attention it has brought to creative, and mobile, in general.

Apple undoubtedly faces challenges with iAd. Considerations such as cost, longer campaign development cycles and the necessarily limited reach that comes with a siloed network are readily acknowledged. But even firms that ostensibly compete with Apple in the rich media, premium ad space appear to have benefited, either directly or indirectly, from Apple’s entrance into the market.

Image via Apple

For all the talk about Android growing faster than the iPhone, Apple’s device remains the top dog in usage – for now. According to the latest “Mobile Mix” mobile device index from Millennial Media, Apple was the leading device manufacturer, top phone and top OS in terms of ad impressions on Millennial’s network in May. This continued supremacy can be attributed in large part to the fact that there are still more Apple OS than Android devices in-market.

On the other hand, Millennial points out that overall Apple ad impressions have decreased 32% since the beginning of the year. In the same time frame, Android impressions have surged 338%. This reflects Android’s upward trajectory, spurred by the launch of  new Android devices on all the major carriers.

Other key findings include:

• Apple ad requests declined 33% month-over-month, while Android requests grew 15%
• RIM remained the second largest OS on Millennial’s network for the 10th consecutive month, and had five BlackBerry devices in the Top 20 for the second consecutive month
• BlackBerry ad requests saw a slight month-over-month decline, but have grown 33% overall since January

As Greg Sterling observes, these trends are consistent with what we’ve seen from other ad networks, including AdMob, in its April Mobile Metrics Report, and firms such as NPD Group, which track handset sales data. The bright spot for Apple remains the iPad, which saw a 160% month-over-month leap in ad requests on Millennial’s network.

Strong marketing support for Android, from the carriers and device manufacturers alike, will help propel Android forward. That said, judging by the healthy demand, to put it mildly, for the iPhone 4 (600,000 pre-orders on its first day alone), the battle is far from over.

Either way, marketers stand to benefit. The ever-increasing competition between the two companies is contributing to the sizable 43% growth in mobile ad spending this year, and a 37% CAGR from 2008 to 2013.

Defying pervasive rumors to the contrary, the FTC today unanimously approved Google’s $750 million acquisition of AdMob after finding that the union of the two companies was “unlikely to harm competition in the emerging market for mobile advertising networks.” In fact, the FTC specifically cited Apple’s entrance into mobile advertising (via its purchase of Quattro Wireless and the impending launch of iAd).

What is the impact of the FTC’s decision for marketers? To a certain extent, it means business as usual, and that means we can expect to see acceleration in the battle for mobile supremacy between Google and Apple.

After tilting in Apple’s favor for the better part of this year, the war of words and deeds has of late swung back in Google’s direction. First came the news that Android devices outsold the iPhone in Q1. This week, Millennial Media reported that ad requests (impressions) from Android devices in April grew 77% month-over-month (versus an 8% decline from iPhone users) and have increased 282% since the beginning of the year (although the iPhone remains the leading OS on Millennial’s network). Finally, at its annual I/O developer conference, which wrapped up yesterday, Google made a number of big product announcements (also the occasion for some serious jabs at Apple), not the least of which were Google TV and major enhancements to Android.

The lede from yesterday’s post at Gizmodo put it stark terms: “Google is done playing catch-up.” And the mobile advertising industry, with Google and Apple officially in the chase, is now full steam ahead.

Google’s planned $750 million acquisition of AdMob has injected an element of excitement into the mobile sector in recent weeks. Perhaps too much excitement: the industry’s informal moratorium on predicting next year to be the year of mobile has been lifted in favor of a return to the hyperbole of yore.

As I’ve discussed here and in the media recently, the AdMob acquisition is a significant event, particularly for advertising companies operating in the mobile space, but after at least a decade of unfulfilled expectations, it’s safe to say that mobile advertising and marketing are not going to “explode” next year or the year after. Rather, mobile will continue to grow incrementally as more brands and agencies fold it into their marketing mix, a trend reflected in eMarketer’s outlook for mobile advertising (full version of the report is available here to eMarketer Total Access subscribers only).

At the same time, it’s important not to lose sight of the other side of the equation – consumers. And looking at recent research on consumer usage of mobile and attitudes toward mobile marketing presents something of a mixed outlook.

In terms of mobile adoption and usage, the trend is positive. The NPD Group noted this week that more US consumers have mobile data subscriptions than last year, and the Yankee Group’s “Mobile Commerce for the Holidays” webinar likewise indicated strong consumer demand for multimedia smartphones with data plans. Similarly, the third wave of “Mobile Market View,” BIA/Kelsey Group’s annual mobile consumer study, found significant growth in both mobile Internet usage as well as more “advanced” behaviors such as video viewing, purchasing and sending.

On the other hand, as consumers’ usage of mobile devices has grown more sophisticated, BIGresearch’s “Simultaneous Media Usage” study indicates that their attitudes toward mobile marketing have become more negative. Relative to last year, more consumers now dislike receiving text ads, video ads and text voicemail ads, and more feel that mobile ads constitute an invasion of privacy. Marketers can take heart that the percentage of consumers who feel that mobile ads a) can be helpful in making a purchase, and b) are acceptable as long as users get content in return both dropped by an insignificant 0.3%.

Rather than declaring victory over a single albeit large acquisition in the space, let’s remember there’s still a significant gap between marketers and consumers that must be bridged. Marketers have to stay focused on the work that needs doing today before we reach tomorrow’s oft-promised year of mobile.

P.S. Look for an expanded version of this post in my next monthly column for iMediaConnection, due to be published the week of November 30th.