In my just published Online Holiday Shopping Preview report (available to eMarketer Total Access subscribers), I forecast that e-commerce holiday season sales will grow 5.4% over last year, reaching $30 billion. Although this is tepid growth compared with the double-digit rates seen for most of this decade, it is a strong improvement over last season’s 5.7% decline. It also compares favorably with retail experts’ predictions of flat holiday store sales.

My online holiday sales forecast incorporates last week’s US Census Bureau report showing that after three consecutive quarters of sales declines retail e-commerce sales turned a corner in Q3 2009 by growing 2.1%. I expect that the recovery will gain momentum in Q4, spurred by holiday spending in November and December.

E-commerce is ideally suited for holiday shopping. The convenience of 24-hour shopping, the ability to compare prices, the opportunity to avoid crowded malls and the ease of finding items that run out of stock in nearby stores are all reasons why holiday shoppers will buy online in greater numbers and shift a bigger share of their total gift spending to the Internet this holiday season.

I am optimistic about the future of e-commerce. Over the next couple of years, unleashed pent-up demand should push e-commerce sales growth back to pre-recession double-digit levels. Mobile commerce, which is on the verge of taking off, will add new vigor to e-commerce. Further on the horizon is the intriguing potential of distributed e-commerce. Retailers will no longer wait for customers to come to their Websites. Instead they will bring their virtual stores to the sites where consumers congregate.

 E-commerce sales in France rose 30% in Q3 2009, relative to the third quarter of 2008, according to the Fédération de l’e-commerce et de la vente à distance (Fevad).

The number of online transactions by French buyers between January and September 2009 was up 34% on the equivalent period in 2008,  said Fevad. Average order value fell 1%, however.

Most of the growth seems due to the more than 15,000 e-tailers that opened their virtual doors for the first time in the previous 12 months—as well as the expanded product and service offerings of older online merchants. François Momboisse, president of Fevad, noted that the number of online buyers had risen only modestly in a year.

The holiday season looks set to bring further cheer to France’s e-commerce sector, especially now that the country has officially emerged from recession. A full 83% of Internet users polled by Médiamétrie said they planned to consult the Web when shopping for gifts, and 70% said they would buy at least some of their holiday items online.

Fevad predicted that online sales in the fourth quarter of 2009 would be 25% higher than in 4Q 2008, and reach €5.4 billion ($7.94 billion). That would take total 2009 online spending by consumers in France to €25.2 billion ($37.0 billion). Fevad anticipates that annual online sales will pass €30 billion ($44.1 billion) in 2010.

A French-language summary of these and other research results is here.

One of the themes in an upcoming eMarketer report previewing the online holiday shopping season is that the tough economy has mainstream and luxury retailers alike returning to tried and true merchandising and marketing tactics. Recent eMarketer interviews with e-commerce professionals bear this out.

Kevin Ertell, VP of retail strategy at ForeSee Results, said that during the holiday season retailers will focus on proven marketing techniques like paid search and e-mail marketing and shed all the peripheral stuff. By peripheral stuff he means experimental activities on social media sites. A lot of retailers talk about Facebook and Twitter, Ertell says, but those forays still seem to be marginal tactics for now.

Scot Wingo, CEO of Channel Advisor, concurs. Many of the retailers he works with want to make sure they have good selection, good pricing and that their products are in the channels where consumers shop. Wingo doesn’t know many retailers who are saying they have to get their social strategy together. Sure, social is on their minds but as part of their long-term thinking.

Suzanne Hader, founder of 400twin, said luxury retailers are trying to connect with affluent holiday shoppers by emphasizing the quality and value of their products over their opulence. They have done away with the razzle-dazzle approach that was in vogue a couple years ago. Saks Fifth Avenue, for example, offers the Forever Handbag, with the implication being that by buying this bag a woman won’t have to buy one every single quarter.

Last week Wal-Mart announced plans to expand last holiday season’s $10 for 10 toys promotion to 100 toys this season, signaling that this will likely be another holiday season of steep discounting. This begs the question, how can retailers compete during this critical sales period without having to give away the store?

Kevin Ertell, vice president of retail strategy at ForeSee Results, a measurer of online customer satisfaction, told eMarketer that price, while it will never be a non-factor, can become a lesser factor for retailers that keep them reasonably in line and deliver a superior shopping experience.

By superior, Mr Ertell means making it easy for customers to find what they are looking for and purchase it without encountering a lot of obstacles along the way. Mr. Ertell says many sites have lots of obstacles, and they are mostly little things that retailers do not even recognize themselves because they are too close to their own site.