Year of Mobile? How about the Year of Now

Google’s planned $750 million acquisition of AdMob has injected an element of excitement into the mobile sector in recent weeks. Perhaps too much excitement: the industry’s informal moratorium on predicting next year to be the year of mobile has been lifted in favor of a return to the hyperbole of yore.

As I’ve discussed here and in the media recently, the AdMob acquisition is a significant event, particularly for advertising companies operating in the mobile space, but after at least a decade of unfulfilled expectations, it’s safe to say that mobile advertising and marketing are not going to “explode” next year or the year after. Rather, mobile will continue to grow incrementally as more brands and agencies fold it into their marketing mix, a trend reflected in eMarketer’s outlook for mobile advertising (full version of the report is available here to eMarketer Total Access subscribers only).

At the same time, it’s important not to lose sight of the other side of the equation – consumers. And looking at recent research on consumer usage of mobile and attitudes toward mobile marketing presents something of a mixed outlook.

In terms of mobile adoption and usage, the trend is positive. The NPD Group noted this week that more US consumers have mobile data subscriptions than last year, and the Yankee Group’s “Mobile Commerce for the Holidays” webinar likewise indicated strong consumer demand for multimedia smartphones with data plans. Similarly, the third wave of “Mobile Market View,” BIA/Kelsey Group’s annual mobile consumer study, found significant growth in both mobile Internet usage as well as more “advanced” behaviors such as video viewing, purchasing and sending.

On the other hand, as consumers’ usage of mobile devices has grown more sophisticated, BIGresearch’s “Simultaneous Media Usage” study indicates that their attitudes toward mobile marketing have become more negative. Relative to last year, more consumers now dislike receiving text ads, video ads and text voicemail ads, and more feel that mobile ads constitute an invasion of privacy. Marketers can take heart that the percentage of consumers who feel that mobile ads a) can be helpful in making a purchase, and b) are acceptable as long as users get content in return both dropped by an insignificant 0.3%.

Rather than declaring victory over a single albeit large acquisition in the space, let’s remember there’s still a significant gap between marketers and consumers that must be bridged. Marketers have to stay focused on the work that needs doing today before we reach tomorrow’s oft-promised year of mobile.

P.S. Look for an expanded version of this post in my next monthly column for iMediaConnection, due to be published the week of November 30th.